The numbers behind the local property market

Everybody knows that the UK property market is experiencing a crisis that is without precedent. The latest figures from the Land Registry for England and Wales show a 15.1% fall in property prices over the last year. Sales volume in the UK between December 2008 and February 2009 is at its lowest level for at least 31 years, according to Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Meanwhile, house builders have said that construction may hit an 88-year low. The general consensus is that the state of the housing market will get worse before it gets better. But what is happening in the Alderley Edge property market? To find out we licensed the property sales database direct from Her Majesty’s Land Registry. This database contains the details of every property sale in Alderley Edge since 1995 with a few minor exceptions. The most surprising finding of our analysis was how weak sales volume was in 2008 compared with preceding years. The figure had more than halved compared with 2007 with a drop from 155 sales to just 75 sales. To give that number some historical perspective the average number of sales per year for the previous 10 years was 164. In contrast to this gloomy observation the average sold price, a statistic often cited in the press, hit an all time high of £558,893 in 2008. A substantial increase on the figure of £364,079 from 5 years previous. But looking deeper into the numbers 10 of the 75 recorded sales were for over £1 million. These high end sales are in part due to the trend of developers creating luxury replacement dwellings. The extent that these sales of high end detached homes has skewed the average is best illustrated by the chart below. Without doubt 2009 will be another turbulent year with sales volume likely to drop further from 2008 levels, unless buyers waiting for a bargain are tempted into the market by lower prices. November 2008 saw what was possibly the first forced sale of the credit crunch in Alderley Edge when a property sold for £70,000 less than it was bought for in August 2005, resulting in a 26% loss. This is the biggest property loss in percentage terms ever recorded for Alderley Edge. Repossessions and other forced sales are likely to present shrewd buyers with some interesting opportunities in 2009. Whilst the Land Registry data is no replacement for a crystal ball it is an invaluable resource for understanding and monitoring the local property market. We found the data so interesting we have dedicated a whole section of alderleyedge.com to it. If you want to review the latest sales, check the ceiling price for your street, or just want to know how much the neighbours paid, then head on over to our property prices section. What is your opinion on the future for the local property market? Please share your views in the comments section below.

Tags:

Property, Property Market, Property Prices